Baseline data
In 2025, the adjusted volume of real economic stablecoin transactions reached roughly 28 trillion dollars, growing by more than 130% a year since 2023. This metric filters out "noise" activity, bots, arbitrage and technical internal transfers, leaving only payments, transfers and settlements that carry real economic weight.
Artem Lyashanov notes that it is precisely this methodology that makes the forecast meaningful. When analysts strip out background activity and show the pure economics, it is no longer a speculative figure but an indicator of real demand for a new payment instrument, he comments.
Two growth catalysts
Two processes underpin the forecast jump in volumes.
- The first is demographic. Over the next twenty years, tens of trillions of dollars in capital are estimated to pass from the older generation to the next ones, which are far more likely to have already dealt with crypto assets;
- The second is infrastructural. The gradual spread of stablecoin acceptance at points of sale turns paying with crypto from a conscious decision into a background technical operation that the buyer does not even notice.
These two factors reinforce each other. A younger audience with capital plus payment acceptance infrastructure in ordinary shops is no longer a niche scenario but the baseline scenario for the market's development, Artem Lyashanov concludes.
What the market still lacks
Alongside market growth, the United States is debating the practical application of the law on payment stablecoins. Artem Lyashanov highlights two questions that, in his view, will determine how fast the industry develops further:
- Whether issuers can effectively pay rewards to token holders through partner programmes;
- How to guarantee that a stablecoin is always redeemable for a dollar at par, even in periods of stress, given that some of the permitted reserve assets (uninsured bank deposits) are not entirely risk-free.
"The market is growing faster than regulators can write rules for it, and it is this gap, not the technology itself, that is the main source of uncertainty in the coming years," the expert notes.
What it means for traditional players
According to Lyashanov, the response of major financial players has already moved beyond cautious observation: acquisitions of payment infrastructure and partnerships between leading payment networks and blockchain companies show that the traditional sector sees stablecoins not as a threat that can be ignored, but as infrastructure worth investing in right now.
Those who build the rails for this model today will set the rules of the game tomorrow. Those who wait risk one day settling on someone else's infrastructure, Artem Lyashanov sums up.
Security of the new payment rails
Fast settlement also brings new risks. Wallets, APIs and smart contracts become part of the payment chain. They need to be protected as carefully as a bank's core systems.
- Risk management. According to NIST guidance, protection starts with an asset inventory and a clear threat model.
- Secure integrations. Payment APIs should be checked against the OWASP API Security Top 10 list of risks.
- Processes and controls. The ISO/IEC 27001 standard sets the framework for an information security management system at a fintech company.
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We write about fintech without the hype. We check every figure against the primary source: industry research, reports from analytics firms and official regulatory documents. The author's opinion is always kept separate from the facts.
How we verify information
We confirm key figures with at least two independent sources. Forecasts are labelled as forecasts. If the data changes, we update the article and its review date.
Editorial principles
No investment advice and no hidden advertising. We explain how the market works and leave decisions to the reader. We cover security issues based on ENISA and CISA practices.
In brief: frequently asked questions
What is adjusted transaction volume?
It is volume without bots, arbitrage and technical transfers. Only payments and settlements with real economic weight.
Why are banks investing in stablecoins?
Because they offer fast and cheap settlement. Whoever builds the infrastructure first will set the rules.
